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Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change
Ist Teil von
Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news, 2015-10, Vol.72, p.287-303
Ort / Verlag
Elsevier Ltd
Erscheinungsjahr
2015
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete
Beschreibungen/Notizen
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches.
•Extreme events and future climate uncertainty represent risk for food production.•Crop models are largely able to simulate crop response to climate factors.•Adaptations are best evaluated in integrated assessment models (IAM).•Key limitations for crop models in IAM are low data availability and integration.•Cross-scale nature of IAM suggests novel modelling approaches are needed.