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Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example
Ist Teil von
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2016-10, Vol.113 (42), p.11765-11769
Ort / Verlag
United States: National Academy of Sciences
Erscheinungsjahr
2016
Quelle
EZB Electronic Journals Library
Beschreibungen/Notizen
The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.