Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Xue, Jiaqing
• Yang, Hongpei
• Luo, Jing‐Jia
• Yuan, Chaoxia
• Wang, Boni
• Yamagata, Toshio

Titel

Ningaloo Niño/Niña in CMIP6 Models: Characteristics, Mechanisms, and Climate Impacts

Ist Teil von

• Geophysical research letters, 2022-10, Vol.49 (19), p.n/a

Ort / Verlag

Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2022

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Wiley Online Library

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• As a dominant climate mode of the southeast Indian Ocean, Ningaloo Niño/Niña has paramount impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. Using outputs from the latest phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we have systematically evaluated the simulation of Ningaloo Niño/Niña in the state‐of‐the‐art coupled models. Eighteen out of 28 CMIP6 models well reproduce the spatial pattern and seasonality of Ningaloo Niño/Niña, whereas the simulated amplitudes show large spread across the models. Main processes of the oceanic and atmospheric El Niño‐Southern Oscillation teleconnections and the coastal Bjerknes feedback are successfully captured by most of the CMIP6 models, but their uncertainties in the simulation are responsible for the inter‐model difference in amplitude. The CMIP6 models are also skillful in reproducing the regional climate impacts of Ningaloo Niño/Niña. Compared to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, a larger fraction of models in CMIP6 well reproduce the Ningaloo Niño/Niña, which provides a good hope for projecting its future changes. Plain Language Summary The Ningaloo Niño/Niña is a kind of coastal version of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the southeast Indian Ocean, which is characterized by the prominent sea surface temperature variability off the west coast of Australia. As a dominant climate mode of the southeast Indian Ocean, Ningaloo Niño/Niña is known to exert strong impacts on regional climate and ocean biodiversity. For example, the unprecedented marine heatwave event associated with the 2011 extreme Ningaloo Niño severely damaged local fishery and coral reef. More severe impacts are expected under global warming. Hence, the future projection of Ningaloo Niño/Niña is of great importance for mitigating devastating climate impacts. As a prerequisite, we need to study first whether the state‐of‐the‐art coupled general circulation models can successfully reproduce such a coastal climate mode. Using the outputs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we have systematically evaluated the performance in simulating the Ningaloo Niño/Niña, including its basic characteristics, generation mechanisms, and the climate impacts. The results show that most of the CMIP6 models can realistically simulate the Ningaloo Niño/Niña, which provides us with confidence in projecting its future changes under global warming. Key Points Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble mean simulation of Ningaloo Niño/Niña captures the observations despite the substantial inter‐model spread Inter‐model magnitude spread is due to different performances in both the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation teleconnections and the coastal Bjerknes feedback The CMIP6 models are skillful in reproducing the regional climate impacts of Ningaloo Niño/Niña