Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Wang, Yaoping
• Mao, Jiafu
• Hoffman, Forrest M
• Bonfils, Céline J W
• Douville, Hervé
• Jin, Mingzhou
• Thornton, Peter E
• Ricciuto, Daniel M
• Shi, Xiaoying
• Chen, Haishan
• Wullschleger, Stan D
• Piao, Shilong
• Dai, Yongjiu

Titel

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Ist Teil von

• Nature communications, 2022-11, Vol.13 (1), p.6848-11, Article 6848

Ort / Verlag

England: Nature Publishing Group

Erscheinungsjahr

2022

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Alma/SFX Local Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N-65°N, during 1971-2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0-10 cm SSI during August-November, and 0-100 cm during September-April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI's signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0-10 cm than 0-100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.