Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Henney, C. J.
• Toussaint, W. A.
• White, S. M.
• Arge, C. N.

Titel

Forecasting F10.7 with solar magnetic flux transport modeling

Ist Teil von

• Space weather, 2012-02, Vol.10 (2), p.n/a

Ort / Verlag

Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2012

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Wiley Online Library

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• A new method is presented here to forecast the solar 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz) radio flux, abbreviated F10.7, utilizing advanced predictions of the global solar magnetic field generated by a flux transport model. Using indices derived from the absolute value of the solar magnetic field, we find good correlation between the observed photospheric magnetic activity and the observed F10.7 values. Comparing magnetogram data observed within 6 hours of the F10.7 measurements during the years 1993 through 2010, the Spearman correlation coefficient, rs, for an empirical model of F10.7 is found to be 0.98. In addition, we find little change in the empirical model coefficients and correlations between the first and second 9 year intervals of the 18 year period investigated. By evolving solar magnetic synoptic maps forward 1–7 days, this new method provides a realistic estimation of the Earth‐side solar magnetic field distribution used to forecast F10.7. Spearman correlation values of approximately 0.97, 0.95, and 0.93 are found for 1 day, 3 day, and 7 day forecasts, respectively. The method presented here can be expanded to forecast other space weather parameters, e.g., total solar irradiance and extreme ultraviolet flux. In addition, near‐term improvements to the F10.7 forecasting method, e.g., including far‐side magnetic data with solar magnetic flux transport, are discussed. Key Points New method to forecast the solar 10.7 cm radio flux using mag‐flux transport A 0.97 and 0.95 correlation found for 1 and 3 day empirical model forecast Method can be expanded to forecast other SW parameters, e.g., EUV and TSI