Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Giarola, Sara
• Mittal, Shivika
• Vielle, Marc
• Perdana, Sigit
• Campagnolo, Lorenza
• Delpiazzo, Elisa
• Bui, Ha
• Kraavi, Annela Anger
• Kolpakov, Andrey
• Sognnaes, Ida
• Peters, Glen
• Hawkes, Adam
• Köberle, Alexandre C.
• Grant, Neil
• Gambhir, Ajay
• Nikas, Alexandros
• Doukas, Haris
• Moreno, Jorge
• van de Ven, Dirk-Jan

Titel

Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: A comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity

Ist Teil von

• The Science of the total environment, 2021-08, Vol.783, p.146861, Article 146861

Ort / Verlag

Netherlands: Elsevier B.V

Erscheinungsjahr

2021

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community. This paper proposes a framework for a harmonisation methodology with the definition of indispensable steps and recommendations to overcome stumbling blocks in order to reduce the variance of the outcomes which depends on controllable modelling assumptions. The harmonisation approach of the PARIS REINFORCE project is presented here to layout such a framework. A decomposition analysis of the harmonisation process is shown through 6 integrated assessment models (GCAM, ICES-XPS, MUSE, E3ME, GEMINI-E3, and TIAM). Results prove the potentials of the proposed framework to reduce the model variance and present a powerful diagnostic tool to feedback on the quality of the harmonisation itself. [Display omitted] •Step-by-step harmonisation on socio-economics, techno-economics, and policies•Up-to-date open source data are supplied for socio-economics and techno-economics.•The proposed harmonisation procedure reduces emissions gap to 2.3 Gt of CO2 in 2030.