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Our understanding of the natural history of differentiated thyroid carcinoma has improved with the definition of prognostic factors. These prognostic factors have helped us identify patients in various risk groups.
A retrospective review of a consecutive series of 810 previously untreated patients with papillary carcinoma of the thyroid was undertaken to analyze the prognostic factors and risk groups. There were 403 patients in the low-risk group, 313 in the intermediate group, and 94 classified in the high-risk group.
With a median follow-up of 20 years, 99% survival was achieved in the low-risk group, whereas only 43% survived in the high-risk group. The intermediate-risk group had a 20-year survival of 83%. The favorable prognostic factors included female sex, young age, absence of distant metastases and extrathyroidal extension of the disease, size < 4 cm, and low-grade histology. Focality, presence of lymph node metastasis, and pure papillary or mixed variant had no statistical significance on prognosis.
Based on various prognostic factors, low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups are identified. Patients in the low-risk group have excellent survival (99%). Appropriate selection of surgical and adjuvant treatment should therefore be used based on prognostic factors and risk group stratification.