Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• OECD
• OECD,

Titel

OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2021

Ort / Verlag

Paris : OECD Publishing,

Erscheinungsjahr

2021

Link zum Volltext

• OECD iLibrary

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Intro -- Foreword -- Acknowledgements -- Editorial -- Abbreviations and acronyms -- Executive summary -- Government funding needs and debts, which surged dramatically in 2020 as fiscal deficits increased and economies contracted in the wake COVID-19 crisis, will remain high in 2021 -- Interest rates on government securities have declined to record lows, limiting the debt service burden -- Shortened maturities combined with continued large new borrowing needs mean higher rollover ratios and refinancing risk -- Prudent debt management will be required as financing needs for debt repayments soar and the outlook for the global economy remains uncertain -- 1 Sovereign borrowing outlook for OECD countries -- 1.1. Introduction -- 1.2. Sovereign borrowing hit a record high in 2020 and is projected to continue rising in 2021 -- 1.3. Key features of sovereign borrowing during the COVID-19 crisis -- 1.3.1. New debt has been issued at lower costs -- 1.3.2. Growing number of new maturity lines and new instruments -- 1.3.3. Heavy reliance on short-term debt issuance -- 1.3.4. Borrowing operations have been adapted to rapidly changing circumstances -- 1.4. Sovereign debt ratios reached all-time highs in many countries -- 1.4.1. Prolonged low interest rates have contained the impact of higher financing needs on government interest expenses -- 1.4.2. The average maturity of outstanding debt has dropped from the pre-pandemic peaks in most countries -- 1.5. The outlook calls for a cautious approach to debt management -- 1.5.1. Rollover ratios as well as auction sizes are rising in many countries -- 1.5.2. Emergency response capacities -- References -- Annex 1.A. Methods and sources -- Definitions and concepts used in the Sovereign Borrowing Outlook Survey -- Coverage of institutions: Central government -- Coverage of types of debt: Marketable debt -- Terminology.
• Regional aggregates -- Calculations and data sources -- Average term to maturity -- Notes -- 2 Revisiting sovereign refinancing risk in light of COVID-19 crisis -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. Sovereign refinancing risk -- 2.2.1. Assessment of sovereign refinancing risk -- 2.3. Impact of the epidemic on sovereign refinancing needs in the OECD area -- 2.4. Measuring refinancing risk through key indicators -- 2.4.1. Key indicators -- Average Time to Maturity (ATM) -- Rollover Ratio (ROR 1Y) -- Rollover Ratio (ROR 3Y) -- 2.4.2. Limitations of indicators -- 2.5. Means of managing refinancing risk -- 2.5.1. Benchmark redemption profile of a theoretical model -- 2.5.2. Strategic design of funding strategies with refinancing risk considerations -- 2.5.3. Bond switches and buybacks -- 2.5.4. Building flexibility in case of market disruption -- Liquidity buffer practice: -- Diversification in source of funding: -- Establishing credit lines: -- Access to liquid money markets: -- Role of transparency and communication in times of stress: -- References -- Notes -- 3 The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on emerging market borrowing -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. The pandemic has weighed greatly on emerging market sovereign issuers -- 3.2.1. Funding conditions have improved, but vulnerability to global risk sentiment remains high -- 3.2.2. Debt issuance has picked up, though remained lower than historical averages in some regions -- Emerging Asia remained the largest regional issuer, while many other regions lagged behind historical averages -- Upper-middle-income countries maintained an upward trend despite the pandemic, thanks to accommodative monetary policies -- 3.3. Currency and maturity structure varied widely among country groups -- 3.3.1. T-Bill issuance by non-investment grade issuers has increased.
• 3.3.2. The pandemic is spurring the issuance of new instruments -- 3.3.3. Domestic currency securities continue to dominate EM issuance, while some issuers faced challenges in regaining access to international markets -- 3.3.4. USD remained the most popular foreign currency of debt issuance -- 3.4. Increased financing and shorter maturities amplified medium-term refinancing needs -- 3.4.1. Emerging market issuers should be vigilant amid continued global uncertainty -- References -- Annex 3.A. Methods and sources -- Primary sovereign bond market data and country groupings -- Credit ratings data -- Notes -- Annex A. OECD 2020 Survey on Primary Markets Developments -- Annex A is available ONLINE ONLY at the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/48828791-en -- List of tables in Annex A -- Annex B. OECD 2020 Survey on Liquidity in Government Bond Secondary Markets -- Annex B is available ONLINE ONLY at the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/48828791-en -- List of tables in Annex B -- Annex A. OECD 2020 Survey on Primary Markets Developments -- Annex B. OECD 2020 Survey on Liquidity in Government Bond Secondary Markets.
• This edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook reviews developments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic for government borrowing needs, funding conditions and funding strategies in the OECD area.
• Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.