Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Dale, Andrew I

Titel

A History of Inverse Probability : From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson [Elektronische Ressource]

Ist Teil von

• Studies in the History of Mathematics and Physical Sciences : 16

Ort / Verlag

New York, NY : Springer US

Erscheinungsjahr

1991

Link zu anderen Inhalten

• Volltext

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• It is thought as necessary to write a Preface before a Book, as it is judged civil, when you invite a Friend to Dinner, to proffer him a Glass of Hock beforehand for a Whet. John Arbuthnot, from the preface to his translation of Huygens's "De Ratiociniis in Ludo Alooe". Prompted by an awareness of the importance of Bayesian ideas in modern statistical theory and practice, I decided some years ago to undertake a study of the development and growth of such ideas. At the time it seemed appropriate to begin such an investigation with an examination of Bayes's Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances and Laplace's Theorie analytique des probabilites, and then to pass swiftly on to a brief consideration of other nineteenth century works before turning to what would be the main topic of the treatise, videlicet the rise of Bayesian statistics from the 1950's to the present day. It soon became apparent, however, that the amount of Bayesian work published was such that a thorough investigation of the topic up to the 1980's would require several volumes - and also run the risk of incurring the wrath of extant authors whose writings would no doubt be misrepresented, or at least be so described. It seemed wise, therefore, to restrict the period and the subject under study in some way, and I decided to concentrate my attention on inverse probability from Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson