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Regularized Aggregation of One-Off Probability Predictions

Operations research, 2022-11, Vol.70 (6), p.3558-3580

Satopaa, Ville A

2022

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Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions

Management science, 2023-09, Vol.69 (9), p.5128-5146

2023

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Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2016-12, Vol.111 (516), p.1623-1633

2016

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Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

Management science, 2021-12, Vol.67 (12), p.7599-7618

2021

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Bayesian herd detection for dynamic data

International journal of forecasting, 2024-01, Vol.40 (1), p.285-301

2024

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Improving the wisdom of crowds with analysis of variance of predictions of related outcomes

International journal of forecasting, 2021-10, Vol.37 (4), p.1728-1747

Satopää, Ville A.

2021

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Decomposing the effects of crowd-wisdom aggregators: The bias–information–noise (BIN) model

International journal of forecasting, 2023-01, Vol.39 (1), p.470-485

2023

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Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model

International journal of forecasting, 2014-04, Vol.30 (2), p.344-356

2014

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Skew-Adjusted Extremized-Mean: A Simple Method for Identifying and Learning From Contrarian Minorities in Groups of Forecasters

Decision (Washington, D.C.), 2024, Vol.11 (1), p.173-193

2024

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Improving Medicare's Hospital Compare Mortality Model

Health services research, 2016-06, Vol.51 (S2), p.1229-1247

2016

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PROBABILITY AGGREGATION IN TIME-SERIES: DYNAMIC HIERARCHICAL MODELING OF SPARSE EXPERT BELIEFS

The annals of applied statistics, 2014-06, Vol.8 (2), p.1256-1280

2014

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A Robust Boosting Algorithm for Chemical Modeling

Current analytical chemistry, 2012-04, Vol.8 (2), p.254-265

2012

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Partial information framework: Model-based aggregation of estimates from diverse information sources

Electronic journal of statistics, 2017-01, Vol.11 (2)

2017

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Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment

Futures & foresight science, 2024-03, Vol.6 (1)

2024

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Exploring the limits on Meliorism: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Futures & foresight science, 2024-03, Vol.6 (1)

2024

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Partial information framework: Basic theory and applications

Satopaa, Ville A

2016

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Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts

Management science, 2023-05, Vol.69 (5), p.2713-2732

2023

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Loyalty Currency and Mental Accounting: Do Consumers Treat Points Like Money?

Manufacturing & service operations management, 2024-09, Vol.26 (5), p.1878-1896

2024

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Finding a "Kneedle" in a Haystack: Detecting Knee Points in System Behavior

2011 31st International Conference on Distributed Computing Systems Workshops, 2011, p.166-171

2011

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Finnish study of intraoperative irrigation versus drain alone after evacuation of chronic subdural haematoma (FINISH): a study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial

BMJ open, 2020-06, Vol.10 (6), p.e038275-e038275

2020

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Bayesian aggregation of two forecasts in the partial information framework

Statistics & probability letters, 2016-12, Vol.119, p.170-180

2016

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Burr-hole drainage with or without irrigation for chronic subdural haematoma (FINISH): a Finnish, nationwide, parallel-group, multicentre, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial

The Lancet (British edition), 2024-06, Vol.403 (10446), p.2798-2806

2024

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Simultaneous confidence intervals for comparing margins of multivariate binary data

Computational statistics & data analysis, 2013-08, Vol.64, p.87-98

2013

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Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions

SSRN Electronic Journal

Satopää, Ville

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Improving the Wisdom of Crowds with Analysis of Variance of Predictions of Related Outcomes

SSRN Electronic Journal

Satopää, Ville

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Regularized Aggregation of One-Off Probability Predictions

Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions

Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity

Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

Bayesian herd detection for dynamic data

Improving the wisdom of crowds with analysis of variance of predictions of related outcomes

Decomposing the effects of crowd-wisdom aggregators: The bias–information–noise (BIN) model

Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model

Skew-Adjusted Extremized-Mean: A Simple Method for Identifying and Learning From Contrarian Minorities in Groups of Forecasters

Improving Medicare's Hospital Compare Mortality Model

PROBABILITY AGGREGATION IN TIME-SERIES: DYNAMIC HIERARCHICAL MODELING OF SPARSE EXPERT BELIEFS

A Robust Boosting Algorithm for Chemical Modeling

Partial information framework: Model-based aggregation of estimates from diverse information sources

Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment

Exploring the limits on Meliorism: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Partial information framework: Basic theory and applications

Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts

Loyalty Currency and Mental Accounting: Do Consumers Treat Points Like Money?

Finding a "Kneedle" in a Haystack: Detecting Knee Points in System Behavior

Finnish study of intraoperative irrigation versus drain alone after evacuation of chronic subdural haematoma (FINISH): a study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial

Bayesian aggregation of two forecasts in the partial information framework

Burr-hole drainage with or without irrigation for chronic subdural haematoma (FINISH): a Finnish, nationwide, parallel-group, multicentre, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial

Simultaneous confidence intervals for comparing margins of multivariate binary data

Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions

Improving the Wisdom of Crowds with Analysis of Variance of Predictions of Related Outcomes

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