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Is generalization decay a fundamental law of psychology?

The Behavioral and brain sciences, 2024-02, Vol.47, p.e54-e54, Article e54

Mandel, David R.

2024

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On measuring agreement with numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes: A re-analysis of data from Wintle, Fraser, Wills, Nicholson, and Fidler (2019)

PloS one, 2021-03, Vol.16 (3), p.e0248424-e0248424

2021

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Do Framing Effects Reveal Irrational Choice?

Journal of experimental psychology. General, 2014-06, Vol.143 (3), p.1185-1198

2014

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Framing, equivalence, and rational inference

The Behavioral and brain sciences, 2022-01, Vol.45, p.e234-e234, Article e234

Mandel, David R.

2022

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Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce?

PLoS biology, 2017-06, Vol.15 (6), p.e2002212-e2002212

2017

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Communicating uncertainty in national security intelligence: Expert and nonexpert interpretations of and preferences for verbal and numeric formats

Risk analysis, 2023-05, Vol.43 (5), p.943-957

2023

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When Half Is at Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

Journal of behavioral decision making, 2024-07, Vol.37 (3), p.n/a

2024

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Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2014-07, Vol.111 (30), p.10984-10989

2014

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Words or Numbers? Communicating Probability in Intelligence Analysis

The American psychologist, 2021-04, Vol.76 (3), p.549-560

2021

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Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers

Trends in cognitive sciences, 2022-06, Vol.26 (6), p.514-526

2022

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The psychology of Bayesian reasoning

Frontiers in psychology, 2014-10, Vol.5, p.1144-1144

Mandel, David R

2014

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Political Identity Over Personal Impact: Early U.S. Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Frontiers in psychology, 2021-03, Vol.12, p.607639-607639

2021

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Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts

Frontiers in psychology, 2015-04, Vol.6, p.387-387

Mandel, David R

2015

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Subjective Equivalence: A Basic Requirement for Strict Framing Effects: Commentary on Huizenga et al. (2023)

Decision (Washington, D.C.), 2023-07, Vol.10 (3), p.235-237

2023

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Principal investigators over-optimistically forecast scientific and operational outcomes for clinical trials

PloS one, 2022-02, Vol.17 (2), p.e0262862-e0262862

2022

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Facilitating sender-receiver agreement in communicated probabilities: Is it best to use words, numbers or both?

Judgment and decision making, 2021-03, Vol.16 (2), p.363-393

2021

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Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

Journal of behavioral decision making, 2018-01, Vol.31 (1), p.127-137

2018

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The occasional maverick of analytic tradecraft

Intelligence and national security, 2020-04, Vol.35 (3), p.438-443

Mandel, David R.

2020

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Conjectures on Science and Rationality: Commentary on Fiedler et al. (2022)

Decision (Washington, D.C.), 2022-07, Vol.9 (3), p.212-214

2022

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Political differences in past, present, and future life satisfaction: Republicans are more sensitive than democrats to political climate

PloS one, 2014-06, Vol.9 (6), p.e98854-e98854

2014

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Too soon to tell if the US intelligence community prediction market is more accurate than intelligence reports: Commentary on Stastny and Lehner (2018)

Judgment and decision making, 2019-05, Vol.14 (3), p.288-292

Mandel, David R

2019

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Uncertainty, Intelligence, and National Security Decisionmaking

International journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, 2021-07, Vol.34 (3), p.558-582

2021

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When expert predictions fail

Trends in cognitive sciences, 2024-02, Vol.28 (2), p.113-123

2024

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Beyond Bias Minimization: Improving Intelligence with Optimization and Human Augmentation

International journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, 2024-04, Vol.37 (2), p.649-665

2024

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Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers

Judgment and decision making, 2019-11, Vol.14 (6), p.683-695

2019

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Is generalization decay a fundamental law of psychology?

On measuring agreement with numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes: A re-analysis of data from Wintle, Fraser, Wills, Nicholson, and Fidler (2019)

Do Framing Effects Reveal Irrational Choice?

Framing, equivalence, and rational inference

Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce?

Communicating uncertainty in national security intelligence: Expert and nonexpert interpretations of and preferences for verbal and numeric formats

When Half Is at Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

Words or Numbers? Communicating Probability in Intelligence Analysis

Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers

The psychology of Bayesian reasoning

Political Identity Over Personal Impact: Early U.S. Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts

Subjective Equivalence: A Basic Requirement for Strict Framing Effects: Commentary on Huizenga et al. (2023)

Principal investigators over-optimistically forecast scientific and operational outcomes for clinical trials

Facilitating sender-receiver agreement in communicated probabilities: Is it best to use words, numbers or both?

Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

The occasional maverick of analytic tradecraft

Conjectures on Science and Rationality: Commentary on Fiedler et al. (2022)

Political differences in past, present, and future life satisfaction: Republicans are more sensitive than democrats to political climate

Too soon to tell if the US intelligence community prediction market is more accurate than intelligence reports: Commentary on Stastny and Lehner (2018)

Uncertainty, Intelligence, and National Security Decisionmaking

When expert predictions fail

Beyond Bias Minimization: Improving Intelligence with Optimization and Human Augmentation

Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers

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