Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Yang, Xiuna
• Sicular, Terry
• Gustafsson, Björn

Titel

China's Prosperous Middle Class and Consumption-led Economic Growth: Lessons from Household Survey Data

Ist Teil von

• The China quarterly (London), 2023-09, p.1-16

Erscheinungsjahr

2023

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Alma/SFX Local Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Abstract Can the expansion of a prosperous middle class help China to rebalance to consumption-led growth? We address this question through analysis of macro- and micro-level data. Using macro statistics, we examine trends in national aggregate consumption and GDP growth from 2000 through 2019. We observe growth in aggregate consumption but do not find convincing evidence of consumption-led growth. Using micro-level household survey data from 2002, 2007, 2013 and 2018, we estimate the size of China's prosperous middle class and its contribution to aggregate consumption growth. We find that the prosperous middle class expanded rapidly but contributed less to aggregate consumption growth than expected. We discuss features of this class that diminished its contribution to consumption-led growth, including its low propensity to consume out of income and its limited expansion beyond urban subgroups. We conclude that the expansion of the prosperous middle class is necessary but not sufficient to bring about rebalancing. 摘要 富裕中等收入群体规模的扩大是否会促进中国向消费驱动型经济增长模式的转变？为回答此问题，我们利用从 21 世纪初开始近 20 年的宏观和微观数据进行了分析。通过利用宏观数据分析全国总消费与 GDP 的增长趋势，我们发现虽然全国总消费持续增长但并没有找到它带动 GDP 增长的有力证据。利用微观住户调查数据，我们估算了富裕中等收入群体的规模及其对总消费增长的贡献，发现虽然中等收入群体规模快速扩大，但它对总消费增长的贡献却低于预期。受制于自身的一些特征，中等收入群体还没有充分发挥其 “促消费拉动经济增长” 的潜力，比如，中等收入群体主要来源于范围有限的人群，其消费率比较低。我们认为，中等收入群体规模的扩大，虽然会促进“经济再平衡”但还不足够，其作用还没有充分发挥出来。