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Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte
Titel
Context-Aware Parameter Estimation for Forecast Models in the Energy Domain
Ist Teil von
  • SSDBM, 2011, p.491-508
Ort / Verlag
Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erscheinungsjahr
2011
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Alma/SFX Local Collection
Beschreibungen/Notizen
  • Continuous balancing of energy demand and supply is a fundamental prerequisite for the stability and efficiency of energy grids. This balancing task requires accurate forecasts of future electricity consumption and production at any point in time. For this purpose, database systems need to be able to rapidly process forecasting queries and to provide accurate results in short time frames. However, time series from the electricity domain pose the challenge that measurements are constantly appended to the time series. Using a naive maintenance approach for such evolving time series would mean a re-estimation of the employed mathematical forecast model from scratch for each new measurement, which is very time consuming. We speed-up the forecast model maintenance by exploiting the particularities of electricity time series to reuse previously employed forecast models and their parameter combinations. These parameter combinations and information about the context in which they were valid are stored in a repository. We compare the current context with contexts from the repository to retrieve parameter combinations that were valid in similar contexts as starting points for further optimization. An evaluation shows that our approach improves the maintenance process especially for complex models by providing more accurate forecasts in less time than comparable estimation methods.
Sprache
Englisch
Identifikatoren
ISBN: 9783642223501, 3642223508, 3642223516, 9783642223518
ISSN: 0302-9743
eISSN: 1611-3349
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-22351-8_33
Titel-ID: cdi_springer_books_10_1007_978_3_642_22351_8_33

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