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The Future of the Italian Family: Evidence from a Household Projection Model
Ist Teil von
The Demography of Transforming Families, p.93-118
Ort / Verlag
Cham: Springer International Publishing
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Alma/SFX Local Collection
Beschreibungen/Notizen
The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate household projections for Italy from 2021 to 2041. We applied a static method to the projected population estimates, which are annually updated by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat). Our approach is based on the Propensity rate model that has proven to meet the requirements of parsimony, simplicity, replicability and quality. The method also provides future time series data of the population by household position (child, living with a partner with or without children, lone parent, living alone and other position), age and sex. Results show an increase in the number of households by one million in 20 years, and a decrease in their mean size, which would drop from 2.3 members per household to 2.1. Furthermore, we expect a decrease of couples with children, an increase of those without children and of people living alone.