Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Rennert, Kevin
• Errickson, Frank
• Prest, Brian C.
• Rennels, Lisa
• Newell, Richard G.
• Pizer, William
• Kingdon, Cora
• Wingenroth, Jordan
• Cooke, Roger
• Parthum, Bryan
• Smith, David
• Cromar, Kevin
• Diaz, Delavane
• Moore, Frances C.
• Müller, Ulrich K.
• Plevin, Richard J.
• Raftery, Adrian E.
• Ševčíková, Hana
• Sheets, Hannah
• Stock, James H.
• Tan, Tammy
• Watson, Mark
• Wong, Tony E.
• Anthoff, David

Titel

Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2

Ist Teil von

• Nature (London), 2022-10, Vol.610 (7933), p.687-692

Ort / Verlag

London: Nature Publishing Group

Erscheinungsjahr

2022

Link zum Volltext

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Abstract The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO 2 ) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO 2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit–cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO 2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO 2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO 2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO 2 . Our preferred mean SC-CO 2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO 2 ($44–$413 per tCO 2 : 5%–95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government’s current value of $51 per tCO 2 . Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO 2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO 2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.