Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Nayagam, Shevanthi
• Chan, Polin
• Zhao, Kun
• Sicuri, Elisa
• Wang, Xiaochun
• Jia, Jidong
• Wei, Lai
• Walsh, Nick
• Rodewald, Lance E
• Zhang, Guomin
• Ailing, Wang
• Zhang, Lan
• Chang, Joo H
• Hou, WeiWei
• Qiu, Yingpeng
• Sui, Binyan
• Xiao, Yue
• Zhuang, Hui
• Thursz, M R
• Scano, Fabio
• Low-Beer, Daniel
• Schwartländer, Bernhard
• Wang, Yu
• Hallett, Timothy B

Titel

Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning

Ist Teil von

• Clinical infectious diseases, 2021-03, Vol.72 (5), p.743-752

Ort / Verlag

US: Oxford University Press

Erscheinungsjahr

2021

Quelle

Oxford Journals 2020 Medicine

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Abstract Background In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world’s population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions. Methods A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs. Results Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested. Conclusions Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning. Approximately one-third of the world’s population with chronic Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) live in China. A comprehensive package of interventions against HBV, including case-finding and antiviral treatment, could reduce HBV-related deaths by 2.1 million and is likely to have a positive return on investment to society over 15 years.