Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Eissler, Sarah
• Thiede, Brian C.
• Strube, Johann

Titel

Climatic variability and changing reproductive goals in Sub-Saharan Africa

Ist Teil von

• Global environmental change, 2019-07, Vol.57, p.101912, Article 101912

Ort / Verlag

England: Elsevier Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Quelle

PAIS Index

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• •Historical climate records are linked to DHS data to analyze the relationship between climatic variability and fertility goals.•Exposure to temperature anomalies is inversely associated with ideal family size and the desire to have a first or additional child.•The direction of precipitation effects on fertility goals varies according to length of exposure to anomalous temperatures.•Climate effects on reproductive goals vary across sub-populations defined by parity, education, residence in rural or urban areas, and region. Using 40 rounds of Demographic and Health Survey data from 18 sub-Saharan African countries, linked to high-resolution historical climate records, we analyze the relationship between climatic variability and fertility goals among reproductive-aged women. We find that, overall, women exposed to above-average temperatures report lower ideal family size and reduced probability of desiring a first or additional child. Results indicate that exposure to precipitation anomalies during the 12 months prior to the DHS survey is associated with a significant reduction in ideal family size, but longer 60-month spells of above-average precipitation are associated with increases in ideal family size. Effects of unusual precipitation are null for women’s fertility preferences at both shorter- and longer-term periods. Additional analyses show that this association varies across sub-populations defined by parity, education, residence in rural or urban areas, and region. In general, our results suggest that women exposed to adverse environmental conditions—namely abnormally hot or dry spells—will reduce their ideal family size and their preferences for having another child. In some cases, however, fertility goals may also decline during spells of favorable environmental conditions, possibly due to increased labor demands among women and their spouses. One implication of the observed links between climate variability and reproductive goals is that policymakers concerned with climate adaptation should work to ensure women have access to the necessary family planning resources needed to realize dynamic reproductive goals in a changing climate.