Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Latenstein, Anouk E. J.
• van Roessel, Stijn
• van der Geest, Lydia G. M.
• Bonsing, Bert A.
• Dejong, Cornelis H. C.
• Groot Koerkamp, Bas
• de Hingh, Ignace H. J. T.
• Homs, Marjolein Y. V.
• Klaase, Joost M.
• Lemmens, Valery
• Molenaar, I. Quintus
• Steyerberg, Ewout W.
• Stommel, Martijn W. J.
• Busch, Olivier R.
• van Eijck, Casper H. J.
• van Laarhoven, Hanneke W. M.
• Wilmink, Johanna W.
• Besselink, Marc G.

Titel

Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model

Ist Teil von

• Annals of surgical oncology, 2020-07, Vol.27 (7), p.2516-2524

Ort / Verlag

Cham: Springer International Publishing

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

SpringerLink

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Background Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed. Methods This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005–2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0–5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. A prediction model was constructed. Results Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17–18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics. Conclusions This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers.