Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Vultaggio, Alessandra
• Vivarelli, Emanuele
• Virgili, Gianni
• Lucenteforte, Ersilia
• Bartoloni, Alessandro
• Nozzoli, Carlo
• Morettini, Alessandro
• Berni, Andrea
• Malandrino, Danilo
• Rossi, Oliviero
• Nencini, Francesca
• Pieralli, Filippo
• Peris, Adriano
• Lagi, Filippo
• Scocchera, Giulia
• Spinicci, Michele
• Trotta, Michele
• Mazzetti, Marcello
• Parronchi, Paola
• Cosmi, Lorenzo
• Liotta, Francesco
• Fontanari, Paolo
• Mazzoni, Alessio
• Salvati, Lorenzo
• Maggi, Enrico
• Annunziato, Francesco
• Almerigogna, Fabio
• Matucci, Andrea

Titel

Prompt Predicting of Early Clinical Deterioration of Moderate-to-Severe COVID-19 Patients: Usefulness of a Combined Score Using IL-6 in a Preliminary Study

Ist Teil von

• The journal of allergy and clinical immunology in practice (Cambridge, MA), 2020-09, Vol.8 (8), p.2575-2581.e2

Ort / Verlag

United States: Elsevier Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Quelle

MEDLINE

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• The early identification of patients at risk of clinical deterioration is of interest considering the timeline of COVID-19 after the onset of symptoms. The aim of our study was to evaluate the usefulness of testing serum IL-6 and other serological and clinical biomarkers, to predict a short-term negative clinical course of patients with noncritical COVID-19. A total of 208 patients with noncritical COVID-19 pneumonia at admission were consecutively enrolled. Clinical and laboratory findings obtained on admission were analyzed by using survival analysis and stepwise logistic regression for variable selection. Three-day worsening as outcome in a logistic model to generate a prognostic score was used. Clinical worsening occurred in 63 patients (16 = died; 39 = transferred to intensive care unit; 8 worsening of respiratory failure). Forty-five of them worsened within 3 days after admission. The risk of clinical worsening was progressively enhanced along with increasing quartiles of IL-6 levels. Multivariate analysis showed that IL-6 (P = .005), C-reactive protein (CRP) (P = .003), and SaO2/FiO2 (P = .014) were the best predictors for clinical deterioration in the first 3 days after admission. The combined score yielded an area under the curve = 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.93). A nomogram predicting the probability of 3-day worsening was generated. The score also showed good performance for 7-day and 14- or 21-day worsening and in predicting death occurring during all the follow-up. Combining IL-6, CRP, and SaO2/FiO2 in a score may help clinicians to identify on admission those patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk for a further 3-day clinical deterioration.