Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Belbute, José M.
• Pereira, Alfredo M.

Titel

Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal

Ist Teil von

• Energy policy, 2020-09, Vol.144, p.111642-111642, Article 111642

Ort / Verlag

Elsevier Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our reference projections suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030 and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary for emissions to be reduced by 39.9 Mt by 2050. Our results suggest that of these, only 8.4 Mt will result from the inertia of the national emissions system. The remaining reduction on emissions of 31.5 Mt of CO2 will require additional policy efforts. Accordingly, our results suggest that about 65.5% of the reductions necessary to achieve IPCC goals require deliberate policy efforts. Finally, the presence in the data of long memory with mean reversion suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure that these reductions in emissions are also permanent. •We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions in Portugal based on an ARFIMA approach.•Projections allows us to identify the policy effort necessary to achieve IPCC targets.•We forecast a reduction of 17.5% of emissions by 2050 relative to 2010 levels.•carbon neutrality by 2050 requires an additional reduction in emissions of 65.5%.•The long-memory implies that any policy effort to reduce emissions must be persistent.