Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Jones, Gareth-Rhys
• Lyons, Mathew
• Plevris, Nikolas
• Jenkinson, Philip W
• Bisset, Cathy
• Burgess, Christopher
• Din, Shahida
• Fulforth, James
• Henderson, Paul
• Ho, Gwo-Tzer
• Kirkwood, Kathryn
• Noble, Colin
• Shand, Alan G
• Wilson, David C
• Arnott, Ian DR
• Lees, Charlie W

Titel

IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology

Ist Teil von

• Gut, 2019-11, Vol.68 (11), p.1953-1960

Ort / Verlag

England: BMJ Publishing Group LTD

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Quelle

MEDLINE

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• ObjectiveIBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.DesignWe conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify ‘possible’ IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.ResultsIn total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn’s disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture–recapture methods identified an additional 427 ‘missed’ cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a ‘true’ prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age.ConclusionsWe report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.