Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Kopp, Robert E.
• Kemp, Andrew C.
• Bittermann, Klaus
• Horton, Benjamin P.
• Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
• Gehrels, W. Roland
• Hay, Carling C.
• Mitrovica, Jerry X.
• Morrow, Eric D.
• Rahmstorf, Stefan

Titel

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

Ist Teil von

• Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2016-03, Vol.113 (11), p.E1434-E1441

Ort / Verlag

United States: National Academy of Sciences

Erscheinungsjahr

2016

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

EZB Electronic Journals Library

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P ≥ 0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P = 0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8 ± 1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.