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Invasion of two tick-borne diseases across New England: harnessing human surveillance data to capture underlying ecological invasion processes
Ist Teil von
Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences, 2016-06, Vol.283 (1832), p.20160834-20160834
Ort / Verlag
England: The Royal Society
Erscheinungsjahr
2016
Quelle
MEDLINE
Beschreibungen/Notizen
Modelling the spatial spread of vector-borne zoonotic pathogens maintained in enzootic transmission cycles remains a major challenge. The best available spatio-temporal data on pathogen spread often take the form of human disease surveillance data. By applying a classic ecological approach—occupancy modelling—to an epidemiological question of disease spread, we used surveillance data to examine the latent ecological invasion of tick-borne pathogens. Over the last half-century, previously undescribed tick-borne pathogens including the agents of Lyme disease and human babesiosis have rapidly spread across the northeast United States. Despite their epidemiological importance, the mechanisms of tick-borne pathogen invasion and drivers underlying the distinct invasion trajectories of the co-vectored pathogens remain unresolved. Our approach allowed us to estimate the unobserved ecological processes underlying pathogen spread while accounting for imperfect detection of human cases. Our model predicts that tick-borne diseases spread in a diffusion-like manner with occasional long-distance dispersal and that babesiosis spread exhibits strong dependence on Lyme disease.