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BibTeX
Horizontal resolution impact on short‐ and long‐range forecast error
Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2010-04, Vol.136 (649), p.1020-1035
Buizza, Roberto
2010
Details
Autor(en) / Beteiligte
Buizza, Roberto
Titel
Horizontal resolution impact on short‐ and long‐range forecast error
Ist Teil von
Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2010-04, Vol.136 (649), p.1020-1035
Ort / Verlag
Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Erscheinungsjahr
2010
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Wiley Online Library
Beschreibungen/Notizen
The impact of horizontal resolution increases from spectral truncation T95 to T799 on the error growth of ECMWF forecasts is analysed. Attention is focused on instantaneous, synoptic‐scale features represented by the 500 and 1000 hPa geopotential height and the 850 hPa temperature. Error growth is investigated by applying a three‐parameter model, and improvements in forecast skill are assessed by computing the time limits when fractions of the forecast‐error asymptotic value are reached. Forecasts are assessed both in a realistic framework against T799 analyses, and in a perfect‐model framework against T799 forecasts. A strong sensitivity to model resolution of the skill of instantaneous forecasts has been found in the short forecast range (say up to about forecast day 3). But sensitivity has shown to become weaker in the medium range (say around forecast day 7) and undetectable in the long forecast range. Considering the predictability of ECMWF operational, high‐resolution T799 forecasts of the 500 hPa geopotential height verified in the realistic framework over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the long‐range time limit τ(95%) is 15.2 days, a value that is one day shorter than the limit computed in the perfect‐model framework. Considering the 850 hPa temperature verified in the realistic framework, the time limit τ(95%) is 16.6 days for forecasts verified in the realistic framework over the NH (cold season), 14.1 days over the SH (warm season) and 20.6 days over the Tropics. Although past resolution increases have been providing continuously better forecasts especially in the short forecast range, this investigation suggests that in the future, although further increases in resolution are expected to improve the forecast skill in the short and medium forecast range, simple resolution increases without model improvements would bring only very limited improvements in the long forecast range. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
Sprache
Englisch
Identifikatoren
ISSN: 0035-9009, 1477-870X
eISSN: 1477-870X
DOI: 10.1002/qj.613
Titel-ID: cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_883031104
Format
–
Schlagworte
Asymptotic properties
,
Earth, ocean, space
,
Error analysis
,
error growth
,
Exact sciences and technology
,
External geophysics
,
Geopotential height
,
Horizontal
,
Mathematical models
,
Meteorology
,
model resolution
,
numerical weather prediction
,
Physics of the high neutral atmosphere
,
predictability
,
Seasons
,
Skills
,
Spectra
,
Weather analysis and prediction
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