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Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely applied in conservation biology
to predict extinction risks for threatened species and to compare alternative
options for their mangement. It can also be used as
a basis for listing species as endangered under World Conservation Union criteria. However, there is considerable scepticism regarding the predictive
accuracy of PVA, mainly because of a lack of validation in real systems. Here we conducted a retrospective test of PVA based on
21 long-term ecological studies—the first comprehensive and replicated
evaluation of the predictive powers of PVA. Parameters were estimated from
the first half of each data set and the second half was used to evaluate the
performance of the model. Contrary to recent criticisms, we found that PVA
predictions were surprisingly accurate. The risk of population decline closely
matched observed outcomes, there was no significant bias, and population size
projections did not differ significantly from reality. Furthermore, the predictions
of the five PVA software packages were highly concordant. We conclude that
PVA is a valid and sufficiently accurate tool for categorizing and managing
endangered species.