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Progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been studied predominantly by following change in forced expiratory volume in 1
s (FEV
1) which reflects both primary airway disease and associated alveolar disease. Carbon monoxide transfer (
T
lco) (the product of the transfer coefficient
K
co and alveolar volume
V
a) is the only simple, widely available test of alveolar function, but few studies have followed long-term changes in an individual.
Seventeen middle-aged men with moderate chronic airflow obstruction (mean FEV
1 56% of predicted values) were observed with yearly measurements of FEV
1,
T
lco and
K
co over a mean of 18.9
yr. At the end of follow-up FEV
1 had fallen to 29% of predicted values.
V
a, measured by single breath dilution, fell in each man.
K
co at recruitment ranged from 41% to 110% predicted and remained >75% predicted in eight men at the end of follow-up supporting a phenotype of COPD with predominant airway disease and little emphysema. Fall in FEV
1 was faster (2.03% predicted FEV
1/yr) in seven men with low initial
K
co<75% pred. than in men with initial
K
co>75% pred. (1.14% predicted FEV
1/yr,
P
=
0.006
).
Repeated measurements of CO transfer in an individual should increase the present poor knowledge of the contribution of alveolar disease to the progression of chronic airflow obstruction.