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Journal of environmental economics and management, 2001-09, Vol.42 (2), p.119-139
Ort / Verlag
New York: Elsevier Inc
Erscheinungsjahr
2001
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect (DFG Nationallizenzen)
Beschreibungen/Notizen
This paper empirically estimates the credibility of the African National Congress's recent threat to nationalize South African mineral assets. While South Africa's financial press argued that the threat was negatively affecting mineral investment and asset values, mining industry executives were confident that the threat was not credible. Using financial market data, I estimate the annual probability of nationalization to have been relatively low, at 1.4%. Although specific to the South African political environment, this result can serve as a benchmark when including political risk in applied models of land and natural resource valuation, investment timing, and resource extraction.