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Journal of risk and uncertainty, 2004-07, Vol.29 (1), p.21-34
Ort / Verlag
New York: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Erscheinungsjahr
2004
Quelle
Business Source Ultimate【Trial: -2024/12/31】【Remote access available】
Beschreibungen/Notizen
Since surface water flows are often stochastic, there is a role for water reservoirs in protecting users against uncertainty. We assume uncertainty regarding the probability distribution for the stochastic variable. Thus the decision allows for a range of approximate models that could be true, and the problem can be solved using robust optimal control. This paper analyses the implications of a robust framework on resource management decisions, using the case of water as an illustration. Robust choices are compared with those of a benchmark stochastic model and the emergence of precautionary behaviour is discussed.