Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Zhang, Jinfen
• He, Anxin
• Fan, Cunlong
• Yan, Xinping
• Soares, C. Guedes

Titel

Quantitative Analysis on Risk Influencing Factors in the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River

Ist Teil von

• Risk analysis, 2021-09, Vol.41 (9), p.1560-1578

Ort / Verlag

United States: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2021

Quelle

EBSCOhost Business Source Ultimate

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Quantitative risk influencing factors (RIFs) are proposed, using the Conjugate Bayesian update approach to analyze 945 collision accidents and incidents cases from the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River over five years from 2012 to 2016. The accident probability is compared under a pairwise comparison mode in order to reflect the relative risk between accidental situations. The Bayesian update mode is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of different RIFs. The riskiest segment of Jiangsu Waterways as well the main causations of collisions are identified based on the distributions of collision risk in the six segments of the waterways. The results can support managers to develop the most effective policies to mitigate the collision risk.