Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Zhao, Ru-Nan
• He, Qian-Qian
• Chu, Xiao-Jie
• Lu, Zhi-Qiang
• Zhu, Zun-Ling

Titel

Prediction of potential distribution of Carpinus cordata in China under climate change.

Ist Teil von

• Ying yong sheng tai xue bao, 2019-11, Vol.30 (11), p.3833-3843

Ort / Verlag

China

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Quelle

MEDLINE

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Climate change seriously affects the geographical distribution of plants. Regional diffe-rences in plant response to climate change will provide important guidance for species introduction and conservation. Based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt model, we used 176 geographic information of Carpinus cordata and 13 climatic variables to reconstruct its current and future niche. The results showed that the model had a high credibility in simulating contemporary potential distribution areas. The AUC values of the test set and the training set of the model were 0.973 and 0.957, respectively. The main core suitable areas were concentrated in Qinling, Changbai Mountain and their adjacent areas, with other sporadic "island" distribution. C. cordata is not distributed in Guizhou, Jiangxi, Yunnan and Fujian, but the model predicted some suitable distribution areas in those provinces. With climate warming in the future, ecologically suitable areas of C. cordata would increase significantly, mainly as "shrinking to high altitude are