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Solar radiation synthetic series for power purchase agreements
Ist Teil von
Environmental science and pollution research international, 2021-03, Vol.28 (10), p.12334-12350
Ort / Verlag
Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erscheinungsjahr
2021
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
MEDLINE
Beschreibungen/Notizen
The present paper proposes a methodology based on the implementation and assessment of autoregressive (AR) solar radiation models for generating synthetic series and providing guidance on bidding strategies for power purchase agreements. The work considered conventional and periodic AR models with different lag orders, assessing the models against real solar radiation measurements. The synthetic series generation process developed 1000 1-year monthly solar radiation scenarios that were later employed for simulating electric energy production and power purchase agreement models. This application allowed one to evaluate the risk associated with the energy supply security, supporting bidding strategies in energy auctions. A real study case is also illustrated in detail, referring to a spot in the Brazilian best irradiance area.