Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Sinatra, Roberta
• Wang, Dashun
• Deville, Pierre
• Song, Chaoming
• Barabási, Albert-László

Titel

Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact

Ist Teil von

• Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2016-11, Vol.354 (6312), p.596-596

Ort / Verlag

United States: American Association for the Advancement of Science

Erscheinungsjahr

2016

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Despite the frequent use of numerous quantitative indicators to gauge the professional impact of a scientist, little is known about how scientific impact emerges and evolves in time. Here, we quantify the changes in impact and productivity throughout a career in science, finding that impact, as measured by influential publications, is distributed randomly within a scientist's sequence of publications. This random-impact rule allows us to formulate a stochastic model that uncouples the effects of productivity, individual ability, and luck and unveils the existence of universal patterns governing the emergence of scientific success. The model assigns a unique individual parameter Q to each scientist, which is stable during a career, and it accurately predicts the evolution of a scientist's impact, from the h-index to cumulative citations, and independent recognitions, such as prizes.