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According to a new hypothesis, greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere should have fallen throughout the last several thousand years and caused a significant cooling of Earth's climate, but early anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and methane kept temperatures relatively warm. A further prediction is that ice should have begun accumulating in northeast Canada several thousand years ago. We carry out a preliminary test of this hypothesis by reducing atmospheric CO
2 and CH
4 concentrations to their estimated ‘natural’ levels in an experiment with the GENESIS climate model. In the absence of anthropogenic contributions, global climate is almost 2
°C cooler than today and roughly one third of the way toward full-glacial temperatures. The hypothesis of an overdue glaciation is confirmed, but at a small scale: parts of Baffin Island retain snow cover year-round, and snow cover persists on high terrain in Labrador for 11 months of the year.
Sprache
Englisch
Identifikatoren
ISSN: 0277-3791
eISSN: 1873-457X
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.07.010
Titel-ID: cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_17610261
Format
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