Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Martín-Rey, Marta
• Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
• Polo, Irene

Titel

Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction

Ist Teil von

• Geophysical research letters, 2015-08, Vol.42 (16), p.6802-6810

Ort / Verlag

Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2015

Quelle

Wiley-Blackwell Full Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability with worldwide impacts. The knowledge of ENSO drivers and the underlying mechanisms is crucial to improve ENSO prediction, which still remains a challenge. The recently discovered connection between an Atlantic Niño (Niña) and a Pacific Niña (Niño), through an air‐sea coupled mechanism during the first and last decades of the twentieth century, highlights an opportunity for ENSO prediction. Here a statistical cross‐validated hindcast of ENSO along the twentieth century is presented, considering the Atlantic sea surface temperatures as the unique predictor field, and a set of atmospheric and oceanic variables related to the Atlantic‐Pacific connection as the predictand field. The observed ENSO phase is well reproduced, and the skill is enhanced at the beginning and the end of the twentieth century. Understanding this multidecadal modulation of the Atlantic‐Pacific connection could help to improve seasonal‐to‐decadal forecasts of ENSO and its associated impacts. Key Points ENSO phenomenon is predicted from equatorial Atlantic SSTs The tropical Atlantic acts as a predictor of ENSO in certain decades The statistical hindcast reproduces the observed Atlantic‐forced ENSO events