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Forecasting the trend of international scientific collaboration
Ist Teil von
Scientometrics, 2014-12, Vol.101 (3), p.1941-1954
Ort / Verlag
Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
Erscheinungsjahr
2014
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
PAIS Index
Beschreibungen/Notizen
The study demonstrates an integrated method of forecasting the trend of a country’s publications. In this context the paper examines international collaboration in a country’s overall publication and forecasts its future trend. The integrated method is based on regression and scaling relationship. India is taken as a case study for this examination. The study shows some interesting features of India’s publication pattern based on time-series data. One observes exponential nature of her publication growth from 2002 onwards. International collaboration also exhibits exponential growth roughly from the same period. Also one observes the faster growth of international collaborative papers than the overall growth of research papers. The study predicts values of number of internationally collaborative papers for the years 2015 and 2020. The robustness of the method is also demonstrated.