Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Morton, Rebecca B.
• Muller, Daniel
• Page, Lionel
• Torgler, Benno

Titel

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment

Ist Teil von

• European economic review, 2015-07, Vol.77, p.65-81

Ort / Verlag

Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V

Erscheinungsjahr

2015

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Alma/SFX Local Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.