Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Gregory, J.M.
• Bi, D.
• Collier, M.A.
• Dix, M.R.
• Hirst, A.C.
• Hu, A.
• Huber, M.
• Knutti, R.
• Marsland, S.J.
• Meinshausen, M.
• Rashid, H.A.
• Rotstayn, L.D.
• Schurer, A.
• Church, J.A.

Titel

Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

Ist Teil von

• Geophysical research letters, 2013-04, Vol.40 (8), p.1600-1604

Ort / Verlag

Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2013

Quelle

Wiley-Blackwell Journals

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin‐up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global‐mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last ∼ 150 years is consequently underestimated by 5–30 mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50 mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias. Key Points Volcanic forcing is often omitted from AOGCM control experiments This causes a substantial underestimate of historical ocean thermal expansion A method to correct the underestimate is described and verified