Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Fenton, Norman

Titel

Improve statistics in court

Ist Teil von

• Nature (London), 2011-11, Vol.479 (7371), p.36-37

Ort / Verlag

London: Nature Publishing Group

Erscheinungsjahr

2011

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

EBSCOhost Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• The likelihood ratio is extremely valuable, but to draw definitive conclusions we need Bayes' theorem to tell us how the odds change when new evidence is added: our updated (posterior) odds equal the prior odds for the prosecution hypothesis multiplied by the likelihood ratio. [...] legal practice will change only when a critical mass of international experts, supported by key members of the judiciary, reaches a consensus on two points: when Bayesian reasoning about evidence can and cannot be applied; and how to get it accepted in court without having to present the calculations from first principles.