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An empirical project forecasting accuracy framework using project regularity
Ist Teil von
Annals of operations research, 2024-06, Vol.337 (2), p.501-521
Ort / Verlag
New York: Springer US
Erscheinungsjahr
2024
Quelle
Alma/SFX Local Collection
Beschreibungen/Notizen
Forecasting an ongoing project’s actual duration is an essential aspect of project management which received considerable attention in the research community. In studies using Earned Value Management forecasting, it has been argued that the network topology is a driver to indicate the accuracy of these forecasts. However, a new project indicator has been recently defined, i.e. the
project regularity
, which reflects the value accrue according to the plan. It has shown to outperform the serial/parallel network topology indicator in specifying the accuracy of project forecasts. This paper introduces a novel way to define the project regularity, which provides project managers with an improved indication of the expected forecasting accuracy for their projects. The study is carried out on an empirical database consisting of 100 projects from different sectors, and the results are compared to the academic literature. The experiments show that the new indicator provides a better categorisation compared to the existing approaches. Further, they have shown that the ability of project categorisers to indicate the expected forecasting accuracy is affected by industry sector and project size.