Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Xue, Dabin
• Yang, Jian
• Liu, Zhizhao
• Cong, Wei

Titel

Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China

Ist Teil von

• Space Weather, 2023-12, Vol.21 (12), p.n/a

Ort / Verlag

Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2023

Quelle

Wiley-Blackwell Journals

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Satellite navigation based on the Global Navigation Satellite System can provide aircraft with more precise guidance and increase flight efficiency. However, severe space weather events can cause satellite navigation failure due to the dramatic increase in total electron content and irregularities in the ionosphere. Consequently, ground navigation has to be used to replace satellite navigation, increasing aircraft separation standards and reducing airspace capacity. As a result, numerous flights may be delayed or even canceled, incurring significant financial losses. The occurrence peak of space weather events generally coincides with the 11‐year‐cycle solar maximum, and 2025 is expected to be the upcoming solar maximum. The Greater Bay Area (GBA), located in the equatorial ionization anomaly region of China, is particularly vulnerable to space weather impacts. To explore the effects of satellite navigation failure on flight operation, we conduct this looking‐forward study and propose solution methods from the standpoint of Air Traffic Management, by simulating satellite navigation failure scenarios. Based on the projected flight volume in 2025 related to the GBA airports, simulation results show that the economic costs can be tens of millions of Euros, which is dependent on the duration of satellite navigation failure and the time interval of ground navigation‐based landing. We believe that this study can be a benchmark for evaluating the potential economic effects of forthcoming space weather on flight operations. Plain Language Summary Space weather events have the potential to disrupt satellite navigation systems due to heightened total electron content and ionospheric irregularities, subsequently decreasing flight efficiency and causing substantial economic loss. Notably, space weather events often align with the solar maximum within the 11‐year solar cycle, with the upcoming peak anticipated in 2025. The Greater Bay Area (GBA) is situated in the equatorial ionization anomaly region and is particularly susceptible to space weather effects. With that in mind, we explore the potential effects of satellite navigation failure in 2025 from the perspective of aviation network operation and propose constructive Air Traffic Management solutions. Drawing from a series of essential simulations and underlying assumptions, the potential economic costs related to flight cancellations and flight delays caused by satellite navigation failure within the GBA could amount to tens of millions of Euros. We hope this study can be a foundational benchmark for assessing the potential economic effects of forthcoming space weather events. Key Points Effects of satellite navigation failure caused by space weather in 2025 on aviation network operation in the Greater Bay Area are simulated Air traffic management methods are proposed to address the demand‐capacity imbalance problems caused by satellite navigation failure Economic costs of flight cancellations and delays are calculated considering aviation network effects