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The energy consumption of the fifth generation (5G) of cellular technology is concerning for the mobile industry and the entire society. To minimize the environmental footprint and economic costs of 5G, it is necessary to adapt the transmission capabilities of networks to end-users' quality of service requirements. In this paper, we focus on the carrier shutdown approach that enables a base station (BS) to autonomously switch off during low traffic periods, by transferring its load to neighbouring active BSs. More specifically, we propose a data-driven framework, constructed through real network measurements, which statistically characterizes the user equipment (UE) transfer across neighbouring BSs, when carrier shutdown operates. The implementation of this framework allows the 5G system to determine a poor load distribution due to energy saving mechanisms, prevent drastic reductions in UE performance, and ultimately estimate energy savings when activating carrier shutdown.