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Machine Learning and Prediction in Psychological Assessment: Some Promises and Pitfalls
Ist Teil von
European journal of psychological assessment : official organ of the European Association of Psychological Assessment, 2022-05, Vol.38 (3), p.165-175
Ort / Verlag
Hogrefe Publishing
Erscheinungsjahr
2022
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Alma/SFX Local Collection
Beschreibungen/Notizen
Modern prediction methods from machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI)
are becoming increasingly popular, also in the field of psychological assessment. These methods provide
unprecedented flexibility for modeling large numbers of predictor variables and non-linear associations
between predictors and responses. In this paper, we aim to look at what these methods may contribute to the
assessment of criterion validity and their possible drawbacks. We apply a range of modern statistical
prediction methods to a dataset for predicting the university major completed, based on the subscales and
items of a scale for vocational preferences. The results indicate that logistic regression combined with
regularization performs strikingly well already in terms of predictive accuracy. More sophisticated techniques
for incorporating non-linearities can further contribute to predictive accuracy and validity, but often
marginally.