Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Zhao, Jianguo
• He, Guanhao
• Xiao, Jianpeng
• Zhu, Guanghu
• Liu, Tao
• Hu, Jianxiong
• Zeng, Weilin
• Li, Xing
• Ren, Zhoupeng
• Ma, Wenjun

Titel

气温影响登革热传播的机制及未来气温变化对其传播风险的影响

Ist Teil von

• Mirovai︠a︡ Ėkonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnoshenii︠a, 2022-01, Vol.66 (4), p.309

Ort / Verlag

Moscow: MAIK Nauka - Interperiodica

Erscheinungsjahr

2022

Quelle

Free E-Journal (出版社公開部分のみ）

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• [Background] Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Under the background of climate change, there are great challenges in the prevention and control of dengue fever, posing a serious health risk to the population. [Objective] To analyze the mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and estimate the risk of dengue fever under different climate change scenarios by establishing a coupled human-mosquito dynamics model using Guangzhou as a research site, and to provide reference for adaptation to climate change. [Methods] Reported dengue fever cases and meteorological data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 in Guangzhou were collected from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and China Meteorological Data Service Centre, respectively. The temperature data under three Representative Concentration Pahtyway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) scenarios in 2030s (2031–2040), 2060s (2061–2070), and 2090s (2091–2099) were calculat