Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Baumeister, Christiane
• Guérin, Pierre

Titel

A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth

Ist Teil von

• NBER Working Paper Series, 2020-11

Ort / Verlag

Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Quelle

NBER Working Papers

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. This global economic conditions indicator contains valuable information also for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. We use this indicator to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the US, the OECD area, and the world economy during the coronavirus pandemic and quantify the main factors driving the nowcasts.