Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Skea, Jim
• van Diemen, Renée
• Portugal-Pereira, Joana
• Khourdajie, Alaa Al

Titel

Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared

Ist Teil von

• Technological forecasting & social change, 2021-07, Vol.168, p.120736, Article 120736

Ort / Verlag

New York: Elsevier Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2021

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Sociological Abstracts

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• •Published global energy outlooks are not yet compatible with the Paris climate agreement.•Energy companies are increasingly using climate ambition to drive their scenarios.•Energy scenarios lag real world developments, especially for renewables.•Global energy scenarios at the extreme ends of the published range appear less plausible.•Increased transparency and sharing of good practice would improve energy scenarios. This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide the scenarios into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends and anticipate policy developments; exploratory scenarios which may consider disruptions; and normative scenarios which derive energy system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, exploratory and normative approaches. The paper covers trends in primary energy demand to 2040, snapshots of the energy mix in 2040, drivers of demand, and the evolution of scenarios projections developed in recent years. We find sharp divergences between outlooks and normative scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. All published outlooks imply that the world is not on an energy pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. We conclude with an assessment of emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking and group think; adaptation of scenarios to real world developments; and the plausibility of different types of scenarios. We propose that more dialogue between scenario developers from the scientific community and those working in governments and commercial organisations could be beneficial. Research focusing on the organisational processes through which scenarios are developed could usefully extend this work.