Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Wang, Chenghao
• Wang, Zhi‐Hua
• Sun, Linda

Titel

Early‐Warning Signals for Critical Temperature Transitions

Ist Teil von

• Geophysical research letters, 2020-07, Vol.47 (14), p.n/a

Ort / Verlag

Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Quelle

Access via Wiley Online Library

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Critical transitions of the state variable (temperature) in dynamic climate systems often lead to catastrophic consequence, whereas the effort to reverse the transitions usually lags behind. However, these transitions are characterized by the slowing down of recovery from perturbations, carrying early‐warning signals that can be used to predict system bifurcation. In this study, we employ the conceptual framework of pitchfork bifurcation and analyze the early‐warning signals in temperature time series for critical slowing down prior to both the early 20th century global warming and heat waves. We also investigate the urban signature in these heat waves. The emergence of early‐warning signals before heat waves provides new insights into the underlying mechanisms (e.g., possible feedback via land‐atmosphere interactions). In particular, given the increasing frequency and intensity of heat extremes, the results will facilitate the design of countermeasures to reserve the tipping and restore the resilience of climate systems. Plain Language Summary Critical transitions have been identified in global and regional climate systems, during which a small perturbation can lead to a qualitative change. They are notoriously difficult to predict and can have potential catastrophic impacts on ecosystems and human society. However, certain characteristics may exist prior to such transitions and can serve as the early‐warning signals to predict critical transitions in climate systems. Here we investigate the early‐warning signals in global warming and regional heat waves based on temperature records. We identify clear early‐warning signals before the early 20th century global warming period and several heat waves during recent years. The early‐warning signals for heat waves are possibly due to the interplay of multiple environmental determinants, such as the drying soil during droughts and the heat accumulated in the atmosphere. Furthermore, we observe differences in the early‐warning signals between urban and rural temperature records. Our study highlights the presence of early‐warning signals days (years) prior to heat waves (abrupt global warming). With the higher frequency and intensity of heat wave events in a warming future, the results can be used to design mitigation and adaptation strategies beforehand to attenuate their negative impacts (such as heat stress) and proactively combat climate change. Key Points We quantify early‐warning signals in temperature evolution of the early 20th century global warming and heat wave events Critical slowing down prior to heat waves is likely due to the interactions of multiple determinants The contrast of urban‐rural signature is identified for early‐warning signals of extreme heat waves