Sie befinden Sich nicht im Netzwerk der Universität Paderborn. Der Zugriff auf elektronische Ressourcen ist gegebenenfalls nur via VPN oder Shibboleth (DFN-AAI) möglich. mehr Informationen...
Climate Adaptation as a Control Problem: Review and Perspectives on Dynamic Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty
Ist Teil von
Water resources research, 2020-02, Vol.56 (2), p.n/a
Ort / Verlag
Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Erscheinungsjahr
2020
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Wiley Online Library - AutoHoldings Journals
Beschreibungen/Notizen
Climate change introduces substantial uncertainty to water resources planning and raises the key question: when, or under what conditions, should adaptation occur? A number of recent studies aim to identify policies mapping future observations to actions—in other words, framing climate adaptation as an optimal control problem. This paper uses the control paradigm to review and classify recent dynamic planning studies according to their approaches to uncertainty characterization, policy structure, and solution methods. We propose a set of research gaps and opportunities in this area centered on the challenge of characterizing uncertainty, which prevents the unambiguous application of control methods to this problem. These include exogenous uncertainty in forcing, model structure, and parameters propagated through a chain of climate and hydrologic models; endogenous uncertainty in human‐environmental system dynamics across multiple scales; and sampling uncertainty due to the finite length of historical observations and future projections. Recognizing these challenges, several opportunities exist to improve the use of control methods for climate adaptation, namely, how problem context and understanding of climate processes might assist with uncertainty quantification and experimental design, out‐of‐sample validation and robustness of optimized adaptation policies, and monitoring and data assimilation, including trend detection, Bayesian inference, and indicator variable selection. We conclude with a summary of recommendations for dynamic water resources planning under climate change through the lens of optimal control.
Key Points
This paper reviews dynamic planning studies for water resources systems under climate change framed as optimal control problems
Multiple sources of uncertainty, including climate and human system dynamics, prevent the identification of an optimal adaptation policy
Research opportunities remain to link dynamic planning with climate process insights and to identify indicator variables for monitoring