Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Kanada, Sachie
• Tsuboki, Kazuhisa
• Takayabu, Izuru

Titel

Future Changes of Tropical Cyclones in the Midlatitudes in 4-km-mesh Downscaling Experiments from Large-Ensemble Simulations

Ist Teil von

• SOLA, 2020, Vol.16, pp.57-63

Ort / Verlag

Tokyo: Meteorological Society of Japan

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Quelle

Free E-Journal (出版社公開部分のみ）

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• To understand the impacts of global warming on tropical cyclones (TCs) in midlatitude regions, dynamical downscaling experiments were performed using a 4-km-mesh regional model with a one-dimensional slab ocean model. Around 100 downscaling experiments for midlatitude TCs that traveled over the sea east of Japan were forced by large-ensemble climate change simulations of both current and warming climates. Mean central pressure and radius of maximum wind speed of simulated current-climate TCs increased as the TCs moved northward into a baroclinic environment with decreasing sea surface temperature (SST). In the warming-climate simulations, the mean central pressure of TCs in the analysis regions decreased from 958 hPa to 948 hPa: 12% of the warming-climate TCs were of an unusual central pressure lower than 925 hPa. In the warming climate, atmospheric conditions were strongly stabilized, however, the warming-climate TCs could develope, because the storms developed taller and stronger eyewall updrafts owing to higher SSTs and larger amounts of near-surface water vapor. When mean SST and near-surface water vapor were significantly higher and baroclinicity was significantly smaller, unusual intense TCs with extreme wind speeds and large amounts of precipitation around a small eye, could develop in midlatitude regions, retaining the axisymetric TC structures.