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Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal
Ist Teil von
World development, 2020-02, Vol.126, p.104715, Article 104715
Ort / Verlag
Oxford: Elsevier Ltd
Erscheinungsjahr
2020
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
PAIS Index
Beschreibungen/Notizen
•Exposure to natural disasters reduces the intensity of routine violence in Nepal.•Damage and destruction tend to increase local-level cooperation and cohesion.•Reconstruction aid dampens the effects of disaster exposure.•Aid can reify and put into focus existing communal tensions.•In the presence of pre-existing social inequalities aid can foster social conflict.
How do natural disasters influence social conflict? We build on previous research by drawing more attention to conditional effects. We argue that damage and destruction tend to increase local-level cooperation and cohesion, as common threats and challenges supersede pre-existing communal cleavages. Irregular distribution of reconstruction aid, in the presence of pre-existing social inequalities, however, can dampen these effects and foster social conflict. We test this argument with a village-level analysis of the effects of the 2015 earthquake in Nepal: we rely on data on the exogenous spatial distribution of earthquake intensity, the number of violent events, and the patterns of post-disaster aid distribution. Our findings show that villages exposed to the earthquake experienced a reduction in the number of social conflict events. This pacifying effect is mediated by government aid distribution: as more aid is distributed, the conflict-mitigating effects of the earthquake are weakened. These results highlight the need for more conflict-sensitive reconstruction aid in the aftermath of natural disasters.