Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Imada, Yukiko
• Watanabe, Masahiro
• Kawase, Hiroaki
• Shiogama, Hideo
• Arai, Miki

Titel

The July 2018 High Temperature Event in Japan Could Not Have Happened without Human-Induced Global Warming

Ist Teil von

• SOLA, 2019, Vol.15A, pp.8-12

Ort / Verlag

Tokyo: Meteorological Society of Japan

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

EZB Free E-Journals

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this event under the condition of external forcings in July 2018 was approximately 20%. This high probability was a result of the high-pressure systems both in the upper and lower troposphere in July 2018. The event attribution approach based on the large-ensemble simulations with and without human-induced climate change indicated the following: (1) The event would never have happened without anthropogenic global warming. (2) The strength of the two-tiered high-pressure systems was also at an extreme level and at least doubled the level of event probability, which was independent of global warming. Moreover, a set of the large-ensemble dynamically downscaled outputs revealed that the mean annual occurrence of extremely hot days in Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times under a global warming level of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.